Delusion in Belarus

[BBC: March 21, 2006]

Belarus' main opposition leader has urged his supporters to keep up daily protests against the election result, calling for a major rally on Saturday.
[...]
Ambassadors from 11 EU countries went to the square earlier to show support.
[...]
In a small-scale echo of Ukraine's "Orange Revolution", protesters have put up 17 tents in the square. They have put candles and food on plastic sheets and have been playing music from loudspeakers.

They said they would continue their protest in sub-zero temperatures until a new election was called

There is so much wrong with this I don't even know where to start. Did anyone really expect this one to be fair elections? Of course not. But I don't understand why the opposition is asking for new elections. New elections held under the same conditions would give pretty much the same result. The main complaint that people have about this, is that the opposition did not get enough media coverage of their campaign. They should have been out there protesting when they were not given enough media coverage during the election campaign.

If they suspect that there has been tampering with the ballots, then they should demand a recount. Since Lukashenko would never agree to EU or OSCE observers to do this, they could use Russia. In any case asking for a new election makes no sense whatsoever. As for the few hundred people freezing their butts off in some central square expecting to be thrown in jail at any moment, while the riot police is sitting smugly in their vans, drinking coffee and smoking cigarettes, that's just pathetic. What do they think they will achieve?

BBC thinks that the West can put pressure on Lukashenko. That's a great idea, to put pressure on someone you need to have influence over them, in other words to give them something they don't have, or to take away something that they do have. Lukashenko would not easily accept anything from the west, because he is suspicious of the western motives. As for taking something away from Belarus, only one country can do something about that and that's Russia. Russia, however, is quite happy with Lukashenko. As long as it's happy, Lukashenko will remain in power.

What were those ambassadors doing on that square? This is the bit which shocked me the most. A country just had its elections, some people are dissatisfied with the result, that's fine. But why would other countries support them? If there has been an election fraud, then it should be documented, and then acted upon in due course. Showing up at that square is just further proof for Lukashenko that the West does not want him in power and is ready to do anything to remove him.

I remember the protests in US after George W was elected for the first time. Imagine if we had a dozen of ambassadors there among the crowds, supporting calls for a new election. US would be more than justified in throwing those diplomats out of the country. I hope that's exactly what Lukashenko does.